This is a post I starting writing on Feb 25, and then got pulled off on to other pressing matters and just put the finishing touches on it. When I started writing it, the Dow was 7270 on its way down to 6500 territory. My outlook has not really changed.
With all of the doom and gloom about the economy, I am becoming more optimistic. Not, cautiously optimistic, but plainly optimistic. This stems from the fact that most pundits and economists are looking backwards because that is the only data they have. They were clearly wrong on the way down and now they are wrong again.
[Those of us in the real world, talking to real people, who have jobs a wide variety of jobs got a sense of the economy long before the statistics show it. I could tell, though not quantify that we were in a recession a year ago. I believe that it stems from our being in touch with everyday middle class people: small business owners, mechanics, plumbers, electricians, etc. It seems pretty apparent to me that the majority of decision makers in Washington, Wall Street types and the pundits on TV live in a social circle where economic hardship rarely occurs. As a result, they really cannot put a familiar face on a person that is losing their house or has to go to the food pantry to feed their family. Perhaps that is why they were surprised at the outrage over the AIG bonuses.]
Anyway, I think that we are at the bottom and that biggest issue right now is fear and lack of consumer confidence (primarily employment related – everyone is fearful for their job). A combination of the stimulus package with some stability / reversal in the jobs numbers will turn things around. I believe that the speed of the recovery will surprise the experts. This is because the experts need to be more cautious now; stimulus spending on construction will boost jobs quickly as the companies start hiring, and there is pent up demand for many goods and services.
Tags: AIG Bonus, Economy, recovery, stimulus package, Wall St.
March 28, 2009 at 7:38 am |
That sounds like real good news to me. I hope you are correct.
April 2, 2009 at 11:28 pm |
[...] 2, 2009 · No Comments About a week ago, on my other blog, I wrote about why I am optimistic about the economy and that I thought the government forecasters are missing the boat (partially because of their lack [...]
April 7, 2009 at 12:28 am |
I commented further on my other blog. http://techmarketintel.wordpress.com/2009/04/02/my-optimism-about-the-economy-continues/